It's Not The Lie, But When You Tell It

Case in point: John McCain's laughably exaggerated charge on Saturday that Mitt Romney is an anti-war zealot:

John McCain accused Mitt Romney of wanting to withdraw troops from Iraq, drawing immediate protest from his Republican presidential rival who said: "That's simply wrong and it's dishonest, and he should apologize."

I say "exaggerated" rather than "false" because the Romney statement from last April to which "Sailor" refers wasn't exactly a rousing endorsement of the Surge.  More of a preliminary bet-hedging gesture in case the Petraeus strategy didn't work.  But never did the Mittster ever call for withdrawal from Iraq, then, since, or now.

The blogospheric and media backlash against McCain's skittish attempt to change the subject from the economy (where he is at a significant, lead-eroding disadvantage leading into tomorrows pivotal Florida Primary) has been prompt and immense.

The pro-McCain Brother Meringoff:

John McCain has accused Mitt Romney of having "wanted to set a date for withdrawal [from Iraq] that would have meant disaster." McCain apparently is referring to a statement Romney made last April in which he assumed President Bush and the head of the Iraqi government might discuss timetables and troop levels in Iraq. I don't think Romney's statement fairly can be construed as advocating setting a date for our withdrawal.

The pro-McCain Bill Bennett:

Bennett's been a McCain defender, certainly more than other conservative radio-talk-show hosts. On CNN, he just called today's Iraq hit on Romney "below the belt" and said "honor has been McCain's watchword" — he should admit that was wrong to do.

Evidently Double-B hasn't still figured out the real McCain yet - though it looks like he's beginning to.

The pro-McCain New York Times:

"The charge appears to be misleading."

NRO Editor Rich Lowry:

As I've said before, McCain deserves a large part of the credit for the surge—he pushed to have it implemented both in his public advocacy and his behind-the-scenes lobbying of the Bush administration, and he has been its foremost defender. Romney wasn't as enthusiastic about it and in his body language, if nothing else seemed ready to distance himself from it if it failed. This is a perfectly legitimate issue for McCain to raise, and he has, by saying things like Romney was "looking at his shoes" while he was putting it all on the line for the surge.

But that doesn't justify the rank dishonesty of his attack on Romney over the weekend. It's so shamelessly unfair, it's the kind of thing you'd expect of Bill Clinton attacking Barack Obama. Clearly, McCain wants to change the topic from the economy. And since he's suffering from his "straight-talk" about his relative lack of knowledge of and interest in the economy, he's trying to compensate with the opposite of straight talk—blatant distortions—about Romney's record.

As Ramesh notes (citing Paul Mirengoff), McCain may feel entitled to this cheap shot given his own courage on the surge. He also might think that his press coverage is so adoring that he can get away with anything, and Romney is so firmly branded as a "flip-flopper" that any charge will stick. But I think something else is going on. McCain has always given the impression of reserving his true scorn for his enemies within his own party. I have a hard time imagining McCain making this kind of dishonest accusation against a Democrat—it would be uncivil and dishonorable. But making it against a fellow Republican running to his right? No problem. On top of this, there's the personal animosity McCain feels toward Romney. Indeed, in one of those debates in New Hampshire, McCain spoke warmly of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama at the same time he was giving off waves of hatred toward Romney.

How will this play? If there's one thing we know about late-breaking events in this primary season, it's that it's impossible to know how they'll play. But I wouldn't be surprised if it back-fires on McCain. The attack succeeded in the sense that it tipped the conversation back toward Iraq, but at a potential cost to McCain. His most important political asset is his political character, his reputation for truth-telling and honorable politics. This dishonest low-blow—if it continues to get attention in the closing hours—could chip away at that asset.

CNN's Jeff Toobin:

Suffice it to say, if there were still a few days to a week left until the Florida vote, Darth Queeg would be in serious trouble.

However, that's not the case.  That election is tomorrow, and from the weekend polling trend, it appears that "the old McCain of 2000" re-emerging had just the effect the Arizona "maverick" was looking for:

1/26/08: Romney 27.0%, McCain 26.9%, Giuliani 17.3%, Huckabee 15.0%

1/27/08: McCain 28.8%, Romney 27.9%, Giuliani 15.8%, Huckabee 13.6%

That trend is also reflected in the Rasmussen poll that Praetor Hewitt cites:

1/26/08: Romney 33%, McCain 27%.

1/27/08: McCain 31%, Romney 31%

Bottom line is, McCain smeared Romney as a defeatist, and overnight he surged six points in the most accurate poll and a point in the overall composite, the Sunday and Monday newscycles are focused on this and not the economy, and despite his best efforts, Romney will have virtually no time to recover from it.

Everybody knows the term "swiftboated" from the truth about John Kerry's real Vietnam service record coming out during the 2004 general campaign.  But there really should be a term for a sucker-punch on the eve of an election; how about "DUI'd"?  Remember when the thirty-year-old DUI story came out about George W. Bush five days before the 2000 election, and his mid-single-digit lead collapsed into that infamous photo-finish - centered, appropriately enough, on Florida?  That "gotcha" caused undecideds to break three to one for Al Gore.

In close elections, it doesn't take much to swing the results one way or the other.  If John McCain pulls out the Florida Primary tomorrow and seizes the mantle of GOP front-runner, he'll have his near-perfectly timed DUI-ing of Mitt Romney to thank for it.

Will it hurt him on Super Tuesday?  C'mon, by that time the Enemy Media will have either buried McCain's smear so deep the worms won't find it, or they'll be playing it up and flogging Romney as traitor right alongside him, while playing down the economy by crediting "Hillary Clinton's stimulus idea" (that President Bush me-too'd, of course) with having saved us from a recession.

Or perhaps it will backfire and Romney will win.  I was about ready to count on it.

Sadly (and you have no idea how much, but will with a certainty find out), not anymore.