Neighbors Under The Skin

Hey, if Nevada is involved, the word "skin" has to be in there someplace.

But the sun rises first on the frigid (no pun intended) Bible belt, specifically South Carolina, where balloting is now already underway.  Here is how the races look on each side in the Palmetto state:

GOP:  McCain 27.0%, Huckabee 25.4%, Romney 14.3%, Thompson 13.9%, Giuliani 3.6%

McCain was surging here since his New Hampshire win, but has slid back within the margin of error in my composite.  Of the nine polls taken over the past four days, only two show "Sailor" with a statistically significant lead, and one has him (back) down to Huck by seven points.

This has to be primarily the fruits of Fred Thompson's recently discovered vigor in going after both Huckles and the Arizona "maverick."  God bless Fred for it, but I just wish he'd opened fire on McCain first.

The Admiral is picking Huck, Pat Ruffini is urging S.C. Romneylans and Fredheads to vote for "the GOP's Al Sharpton" in a last-ditch effort to slay the McCainiac beast once and for all, but I can only go with the numbers in front of me and pray the Cloverfield isn't a sneak preview of the Minneapolis convention.

Meanwhile, things have taken a turn for the better in Nevada - in the anti-Queeg sense, that is....

GOP:  Romney 25.7%, McCain 20.7%, Huckabee 12.3%, Giuliani 11.7%, Thompson 10.7%

The Brothel state's community of Mormon expatriots from neighboring Utah are said to be a significant source of strength for Romney's surge here over the past week.  This, of course, isn't terribly encouraging if you're a Romneylan as it suggests more of the same self-limiting identity politics that has kept Huckles from advancing beyond his myopic evangelical base.  But if it shafts McCain in the end, I shan't be complaining.

In the bigger picture, winning Nevada is, for the Mittster, an offset for bypassing South Carolina, at least in terms of the delegate count.  As there is no set method of allocating Nevada Republican delegates, there's no way to predict how many Romney may win if the above numbers hold (or he exceeds them), but there are thirty-four to choose from versus twenty-four in winner-take-all South Carolina, so Romney doesn't figure to lose delegate ground to either Darth Queeg or Darth Scudder.

But in the perception contest, a McCain win in South Carolina would not be a good thing.  The aforelinked Ruffini piece goes on at considerable length about the momentum it would give the "Republican Scoop Jackson".  (Pardon me for a moment while I look out my window and watch the squadron of winged pigs fly by).  Whereas, in the opinion of Jay Cost, Romney, even with his Michigan victory, needs McCain to lose today in South Carolina to even have a shot at eking out a win in Florida to truly regain any chance at national viability.

Speaking of which....

GOP: McCain 23.2%, Giuliani 20.3%, Romney 18.0%, Huckabee 17.3%, Thompson 8.5%

There's still ten days to go in the Sunshine state, and Rudy insists he's going to win there.  This would turn a triple-threat match at the top into a fatal four-way, and reel the oft-discussed scenario of a brokered convention considerably closer to becoming a realistic possibility.

On the other hand, with the February 5th "Super-Duper Tuesday" swath looming, and "retail" politics switching to the "wholesale" variety (i.e. candidates can't be in multiple states at the same time), mass media becomes a much larger factor.  And while Romney would have the resource advantage nationally (since, if all else fails, he can self-finance his campaign), guess who will have the incalculable, 527-esque advantage of a friendly Enemy Media establishment to lavish him with oodles of free, favorable publicity?  And that will do so in at least direct proportion to the savagery with which they'll bombard the other 'Pubbies, but especially Romney?

Yes, that's a rhetorical question.

The "big f'ing lizard" is coming.  Please, South Carolinians, kill it today.  Think of the barbeques you can have.

UPDATE: Oh, yes, the Donks are caucusing in Nevada today, too.  The pick:

Rodham 37.8%, Obama 33.8%, Edwards 18.0%

Ed says Obama by five, and I don't dispute that the polls haven't been all that accurate in the contests thus far, but even the Nevada composite has the Empress ahead (just) outside the margin of error, and all three polls are showing pretty close to the same result.

As I keep saying, remember the Clinton Corallary: the conventional rules of politics do not apply to them.  If any other candidate had used one of his party's big constituencies (Big Labor) to try and suppress the vote of another (African-Americans) in order to sabotage his principal rival (also an African-American), there wouldn't even be a grease spot on the floor to mark his remains.  If any other candidate's ex-presidential spouse had publicly lost his mind not once, but twice, said candidate would be a laughing stock even via reflected ignominy.

But it looks as if despite stepping on the aforementioned public relations rakes, Mrs. Clinton is going to win Nevada anyway.

And if not?  Then Obama solidifies his claim to the #2 spot on Hillary's ticket.

That's my job, ladies and gentleman: deflating the electoral suspense the rest of the blogosphere manufactures

Hey, it beats hiding under the bed in a fetal position dreading the unvoteable November horror of Medusa vs. Darth Queeg.

UPDATE II: Governor Romney and Senator Clinton have been declared the winners in Nevada.

"Toldjah" she'd get away with trying to disenfranchise Las Vegas minority Obama caucusers.  And how are the Arkansas Bonnie & Clyde celebrating Her Nib's Nevada triumph?  By accusing the very same Culinary Union workers whose votes they (by proxy) tried to suppress of vote suppression!

Gotta love that chutzpah.

Like she'll give us any choice....

UPDATE III: The anti-Hillary/pro-Obama spin has already emerged:

According to the demographics, over 70% of the caucusers are 45 years of age or older, and 59% of them are women. That looks like the caucusers have played directly into the demographic wheelhouse of Hillary Clinton....but she's only got a 6-point lead over Barack, 51%-45%. Given the strong demographics in her favor, this isn't exactly an impressive showing.

No, it isn't.  But many, including the Admiral, were predicting an Obama victory in Nevada, too.  Ditto New Hampshire, come to think of it.  So while B.O. enjoys a ten point lead over the Empress in South Carolina, don't be surprised if that gap doesn't "miraculously" shrink or disappear altogether by next Saturday.

UPDATE IV: McCain wins South Carolina.  Dammit, what the devil is wrong with South Carolinians, anyway?  Isn't anybody voting strategically instead of parochially this cycle?  The veterans vote for Lord Queeg (aided and abetted by the libs who in any other circumstances scorn them, and vice versa), evangelicals for Huckaburger, and the rest of the - there appears to be no other word for it - former Reagan coalition scatter to the four winds?  According to exit polls, illegal immigration and the economy are the top issues for Republican voters - illegal immigration!!!  McCain-Kennedy wasn't even a full year ago!  Can so many elephants have possibly forgotten that?

{sigh} I guess it wasn't like I didn't call it back on Tuesday.  Delegate-wise, Romney may well be further ahead tonight than he was this morning.  But in the primaries, as I've been saying, perception matters more than reality.  The perception will be that the first GOP candidate to get a second "major" victory is Darth Queeg.  And that'll make him the front-runner.

Dammit.  I don't know what the bigger disaster will be - losing the country to Hillary or losing the country AND my own party to the real-life "Manchurian candidate".

I wonder how Praetor Hewitt will try and spin this one.