Telltale Internals?
Some verrrrry interesting details in Mitt Romney's nine-point victory over John McCain in the Michigan Primary last night:
Did Romney family nostalgia play a role? Not among those voters old enough to remember George Romney. McCain won voters over 65 by 39-38%.
Other highlights of Romney’s impressive, broad-based win:
- Romney won conservatives 41-23%, with 20% for Huckabee.
- Romney won Republicans 41-27%.
- Romney won Evangelicals 34-29% for Huckabee. McCain took just 23%.
- Romney won with those satisfied with President Bush 45-24%. Yes, Republicans are split 50-50 on this, but it’s easier to message around support for the party’s leader rather than opposition to him. McCain always has to tread gingerly on this to avoid angering what institutional support he has.
Once again I have to gnash my teeth in irritation at the "Republican vote" actually being a demographical stat in a Republican primary. What is so bloody difficult to understand about a party primary being limited to voters who belong to that party?
That said (again), it is indicative of what the coming primaries, the vast majority of which are "closed" (as they damn well should be), will look like. Not surprising, especially given the only areas of McCainian strength:
- McCain won Democrats 41-33%.
- McCain won pro-choice voters 39-35%.
- He won among those who never attend church by 11 points — 39-28.
- The “architect of the surge” won with Iraq war disapprovers 36-29.
As eight years ago, McCain, who is basically Joe Lieberman's evil twin, is a de facto Democrat running for the GOP presidential nomination. In his two attempts at tilting that windmill he has relied upon early success in high-profile "open" contests to glom the "frontrunner" perception in the public consciousness and, with the help of his Enemy Media pals, bulldoze and any all Republican opposition from the field before the later, big "closed" primaries could take place. He failed in 2000 because of his runaway Christophobia on the eve of the South Carolina Primary, and his principal rival, George W. Bush, was the, well, principal beneficiary. This time I feared that with two (or three, if you count Rudy) "traditional Republican" opponents, and no repeat religious bigotry meltdown, the "end-around" strategy might succeed.
Blessedly, it did not. "Sailor" got some help from his true friends on the other side of the aisle, but not enough, and not as much as he did eight years ago, despite the fact that the Donk side of the primary was uncontested and functionally nullified. Now if only Fred Thompson could run down both McCain and Mike Huckaplucka in South Carolina, perhaps a stake could be driven through Darth Queeg's black political heart once and for all. But things are looking much brighter than they were forty-eight hours ago.
All the moreso given that Romney actually beat Huckles in his base demographic. I don't know what differences there might be between Iowa evangelicals and their Michigan counterparts. The economy was a bigger issue in Michigan, so that may have weighed heavier than pure cultural issues. Plus Romney essentially out-populisted Huck with his "I'll fight for every job" schtick, leaving the Rev'rund with little or nothing to say.
That being said, here's the latest South Carolina polling composite: McCain 27.8%, Huckles 20.5%, Romney 15.0%, Thompson 11.8%, Giuliani 4.5%.
We're not out of the woods yet, folks. But like Winston Churchill once said of another epic struggle, "It isn't the beginning of the end, but perhaps it is the end of the beginning."
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