To Florida, And Beyond

First and foremost, let's remember that there are two other state nominating contests before next Tuesday's Florida Primary: the Louisiana and Hawaii Caucuses.  Just off the top of my head (I can't find any polling data for either one online), I'm picking Mike Huckabee to win the former and Mitt Romney to win the latter.  Assuming winner-takes-all in both, that would update the delegate count to: Romney 92, Huckles 76, McCain 38, Thompson 8, Giuliani 2.

Now, then, to my current Florida polling composite: McCain 23.3%, Giuliani 20.5%, Romney 19.2%, Huckles 16.7%, Thompson 8.7%.  So, currently, depending upon the size of the margin of error, it's either "Sailor" and Rudy, or "Sailor," Rudy, and Mitt, with the "maverick" holding the slight advantage.

RomneyIsGod's post-South Carolina spin is that Governor Romney is slightly ahead overall in the cumulative primary/caucus vote total and the Florida Republican electorate is an amalgam of all the primary/caucus states so far, so Romney should have the edge.  Plus there's one poll that bolsters this theory.  Preator Hewitt also highlights Mayor Giuliani's economic policy broadside at Senator McCain today.  And, lastly, he reminds us of what should be McCain's intractable weakness in "closed" contests with Republican-only electorates. 

I don't frequent Giuliani Central Hub much anymore, ironically in more or less direct proportion to Rudy's slow fade from the GOP presidential race up to now.  One of their number, The Dreaded Quinn Hillyer, actually threw a bone to us "Fredheads":

[H]ere is what I would do, politically, if I were Thompson: I would just lay low. Just wait. See what happens in Louisiana's caucuses tomorrow. See what happens in Florida next week. See who drops out of the race at some point. And then consider reviving my campaign, full force, once the field is narrower. The likelihood is that Thompson would win in a one-on-one contest vs. ANY of the remaining candidates, and he might even win pluralities in a three-way race. Even after Super Tuesday, there will still be nearly half of the delegates to be awarded. And, depending on what happens in Florida, the chances of a brokered convention look increasingly realistic (not yet LIKELY, but definitely more and more possible). If he enters the convention on a roll, having won several of the later contests, he could still emerge as a consensus choice.

Yeah, sure.  And if the New York Giants' charter flight crashed on the way to Arizona, my Seattle Seahawks might still get to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLII as a "second alternate."  Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the sentiment.  But this scenario depends not just on a brokered convention, but one in which the McCainiacs and Huckabeeans haven't the delegates to strong-arm the sort of corrupt, back\-stabbing backroom deal that Darth Queeg is famous for.  More on that a little later.

And, from a quarter that has yet to pick a horse, the Admiral is tentatively picking Rudy to pull out Florida, an outcome that would leave the GOP race muddled but with Romney having a leg up delegate-wise going into the Super-Duper Tuesday "delegate hunt".

Given that I took today off, I had the time to work on my primary campaign spreadsheet and flesh out the "2008 GOP State-By-State Polls" tab with as much polling data as I could find online, and still plug ample data-less holes with educated guesses.  I also used a blanket winner-take-all assumption even though some states will have proportional delegate allocation, and kept the "Big Five" in the race for the duration.  This is a general, rule-of-thumb estimate, not a firm prediction.  Heck, I don't make those until the night before an election, and I'm not even going to be daft enough to try and call Florida before next Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Yet I still find it both intriguing and potentially very instructive in the difference the results in Florida could have on a brokered convention.

Here are the delegate totals I come up with if McCain wins Florida: McCain 658, Giuliani 555, Huckles 544, Romney 398, Thompson 211.

And if Rudy takes Florida: Giuliani 612, McCain 601, Huckles 544, Romney 398, Thompson 211.

What is the difference, you ask?  The combined McCain-Huckabee delegate total vis-a-vie the number needed to clinch the Republican presidential nomination.  Recall the possible cahootsedness between Darth Queeg and Darth Scudder.  If McCain doesn't catch fire as the "inevitable" frontrunner and his weakness in "closed" (i.e. GOP-only) primaries remains, and particularly if the twenty-two February 5th contests don't clarify anything, the likelihood of a brokered convention in Minneapolis this summer becomes an increasing certainty.  In that case, none of the candidates would have the minimum 1,191 delegates needed to claim victory.  But if McCain were to win Florida, he would not only have the biggest delegate plurality, but if Hucker threw him his support - say, in exchange for the #2 spot on McCain's ticket - "Sailor" would "soar" to 1,202.  Game, set, match.  Whereas without Florida, the two Lords of the Sith would be forty-six delegates short. 

Of course, the whole thing may be moot, since McCain is up double-digits in California and has a seven point lead over Rudy in New York.  If Giuliani's voluntary sit-out of the early contests and resulting fade becomes terminal - which you would have to figure it would be if he can't win Florida - then a lot of what had been Rudy's support would probably drift to McCain, in which case he might not need the Rev'rund's support after all, and the indebtedness to those crazy snake-handlers that'd come with it.  Which would suit a Christophobe like "Sailor" just fine.

Once again, it's about perceptions.  Rudy wins Florida, and the perception is there is no front-runner; Romney or McCain win, and one or the other is the front-runner.

Or Fred could sit around even longer and then swoop in and clean up.  And while he's at it, come up with a diet that lets me eat more, exercise less, and shed pounds like my cat sheds fur.

Thanks, Quin.

UPDATE: As regards McCain's announced opposition to "national catastrophe insurance," and the supposed backfire it's expected to cause amongst Florida GOPers, might I point out that, unlike his similar rhetoric regarding automotive industry jobs in Michigan, the electorate in Florida, unlike Michigan, is Republican-only.  And fiscal responsibility is something that the GOP grassroots has been demanding, so myopically that they helped cashier their own congressional majority fourteen months ago.

Frugality "straight talk" didn't help "Sailor" in Michigan with Dems and "Independents" (pardon the redundancy), but one would logically expect it to be what Pachyderms, in Florida and elsewhere, want to hear.  Certainly it's what McCain wants Florida Republicans to hear given Rudy's "the rest of the McCain story" disclosures.

UPDATE II: Here's some sage advice for 'Pubbies consumed with an obsessive over-focus on "electability":

So, conservatives, embrace the political reality of 2008: Either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is likely to be your next president....political history , Bush’s unpopularity, and economic wobbliness all stack the odds against the Republicans.

To those tempted by these facts to endorse a GOP candidate who dislikes and alienates key elements of the conservative coalition, remember that there are worse things than losing an election. Given the odds, such a desperate gambit will probably still result in a November loss, but with lasting collateral damage to political alliances, institutional credibility, and personal integrity.

I disagree with John Hood when he says that "we can survive a third Clinton administration".  The first two didn't have responsibility for fighting and winning a global war against WMD-wielding Islamic fanatics; indeed, their deriliction of that responsibility got us into this war, and handing it back to them would probably get us crippled or destroyed.

But with a non-fragmented Right, that window of harrowing vulnerability could be limited to four years; a party/coalition-shattering McCain usurpation would extend it for a generation.

UPDATE: Mark Levin tries again, doggedly, to get through to Republican voters what an unmitigated disaster a McCain nomination would be for the GOP and the country.  Please, read the whole thing, take it to heart, and vote accordingly.