The Dems' Version Of Ford-Reagan '76?

Some righty bloggers are wishfully thinking so.

From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75). That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.

The current Donk delegate tally is Rodham 1,148, Obama 1,121. Needless to say, the quoted premise hasn't changed in the six days since it was posted. The makes it all the more likely (astonishing as it is) that their party's nomination will still be up for grabs - mathematically, that is - at the Dem convention in Denver six months from now. Assuming, of course, that (not to {*AHEM*} get ahead of myself) no deal is cut between now and then.

Pat Ruffini, whose politcal acuity has cratered since the Republicans committed political and ideological suicide a week ago, jumps to the conclusion that this means the Democrats are headed for "a train wreck"; one that could actually help elect....Darth Queeg:

Proportional representation makes it virtually impossible for a candidate winning in the national popular vote by five to ten points to secure the nomination with popularly selected delegates alone. In many cases, delegate allocation is even stricter than the popular vote share itself, with a three-point victory in a state resulting in a delegate tie (or Clinton’s six point win in Nevada resulting in more Obama delegates). In some California Congressional districts, the winning candidate must secure 62.5% of the vote to win more delegates. Bottom line: Democrats are about to get schooled in the consequences of “fairness” and “equality.”

This leaves a nomination decided by unelected superdelegates who may not reflect the wishes of primary voters. Or better still, a floor fight to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations (which the non-Clinton candidates withdrew from under false pretenses). The process may well result in an “illegitimate” nominee selected by a brawl over Florida’s votes.

The rest of the narrative (which turns out to be in a different post elsewhere the link for which I did not record for this posterity) is that the Clinton Machine - which, never forget, owns the Democrat Party lock, stock, and ChiComm barrel - will muscle through a motion to seat Hillary's Michigan and Florida delegates. This puts the Empress over the top and hands her the nomination. The Obama forces balk in enranged incredulity and walk out of the convention. Livid black voters resolve to stay home en masse on Election Day, or even vote for McCain-Huckabee in protest of this "stolen nomination". Tack on Senator Clinton's turning to Mr. Bill to be her running mate, which might or might not lead to a constitutional challenge before the SCOTUS, and you have more fun than a barrel of monkeys, even though the ultimate outcome is still a disaster for conservatives either way.

It also will not happen. This is precisely why a deal will be cut before the Denver convention that brings B.O. aboard the ticket as Her Nib's running mate. Perhaps she'll promise him to only serve one term, leaving the field wide open for him to run in 2012 as heir apparent; maybe he'll be dense enough to fall for it. But either way, the Clinton Machine isn't going to leave so much to chance that this train wreck can ever take place and endanger the Queen-in-waiting's November coronation. And if anybody believes for a solitary second that black voters won't turn out in their usual 95% droves for Hillary, regardless of what she does to the Generalissimo between now and then, you haven't been paying attention to the past forty years of political history.

Mark down the date of this post, and remember it when the Rodham-Obama ticket is standing hip-deep in multi-colored balloons at the Pepsi Center in six months, grinning broadly (to Denobulan magnitudes in Obama's case) and hands clasped in triumph. Also remember this: the real "train wreck" of this campaign took place last Tuesday, on the Republican side of this charade. We've haven't begun to see the casualties it will generate.

But we will. We certainly will.