A Victory For Osama bin Laden

He hasn't conquered Pakistan and its nukes (yet).  But, as if to confirm Islamabad's throwing in with the terrorists and against Afghanistan and the U.S., he and his Taliban allies have been ceded their own chunk of its territory to use as they see fit:

Pakistan’s new government has signed a peace deal with pro-Taliban militants, in what some U.S. officials call a “victory for Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.”

Under the terms of the fifteen-point plan, signed Wednesday in the city of Peshawar, the Pakistani army will withdraw thousands of troops deployed to the Swat Valley region, an area where officials believe bin Laden and other al Qaeda figures could be hiding. The militants have promised to stop suicide bomb attacks and hand over any foreign militants, according to Bashir Bilour, a senior minister of Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province.

“While the deal sounds good, it’s likely to be implemented badly,” said Richard Clarke, an ABC News consultant and former White House counterterrorism chief. “What this means is that the United States will continue to be threatened by an al Qaeda that has a safe haven where it can attract people from around the world, be trained and equipped and sent out to the United States and other countries around the world.”

Looks like that puts us back to square one.  Worse than square one, actually; when al Qaeda and the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, they were clandestinely aided by Pakistani intelligence, but they were otherwise on their own should their war against the United States gain enough of our attention to bring us over there in force.  Now they enjoy the same "safe haven" under the effective protection of the Pakistani government, which has already taken an adversarial stance against Operation Enduring Freedom next door.

Ironically, though, while I agree with Ensign Ed that there's no way Talibanis will fink out their al Qaeda counterparts, they may well cease suicide attacks in Pakistan for the time being.  That's not a function of terrorist "integrity," but the fact that their campaign of such attacks up until now got them what they wanted: their own undisturbed, unchallenged redoubt on Pakistani territory.  Their next focus will be the re-conquest of Afghanistan, where there just happen to be lots of Americans to kill, while bin Laden and his high command can rebuild their network's infrastructure, finances, communications, and resume, as soon as practicable, their North American offensive.

Or, perhaps, resume their Pakistani offensive, finish toppling the pathetic democratic regime, and finally get their hands on that treasure trove of radioactive toys.  Which will subsequently be coming to an American city near you.

In essence, while we've won the struggle on the Iraqi front, the Afghan theater has been, for all strategic intents and purposes, lost, unless we're willing to confront Islamabad and "persuade" them of the error of their ways, like we did in the wake of 9/11.

That suggests a sequel.  Given the direction of American politics the past eighteen months, that sequel is becoming a certainty.