Firstfruits Of A Massacre

There was a special congressional election yesterday.  Not like last year in Massachusetts where an Iraq veteran did better than expected against Paul Tsongas' widow, providing some measure of hope that the GOP might be able to limit its 2008 casualties.  No, this took place in what should be one of the "reddest" of "red" states, Mississippi, where Republican Memphis, TN-area mayor Greg Davis was defending the seat of Roger Wicker, the man elevated to the Senate seat Trent Lott abdicated, against the challenge of "conservative" Democrat Travis Childers.

Coming in the wake of two more recent losses in what had been conservative districts (former Speaker Denny Hastert's Illinois seat and a Louisiana seat that Republicans had held since the 1970s), this race came to be seen as a last stand for the embattled minority party.  The GOP threw out the full-court press, bringing in President Bush, Vice President Cheney, First Lady Laura Bush, and supposedly popular Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour.  They also brought in RINO usurper John Sith McCain, negating any enthusiasm the other bigwigs may have been able to generate.  They also ran ads rightly pointing out that a vote for Childers is a vote for the continuation of Speaker Crazy Nancy Pelosi as well as a vote for Rodbama as well.

Childers and the DCCC countered by whipping out on Monday a print ad smearing Greg Davis as a Ku Klux Klan sympathizer.  This from a party that has a one-time Grand Wizard as its senior senator from West Virginia.

Guess which strategy worked:

On Tuesday night, Republicans lost a Republican congressional district in a special election in Mississippi.

Party insiders fear the loss may be just another sign of a coming bloodbath for congressional Republicans this November.

Democrat Travis Childers’ victory over Republican Greg Davis in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District yesterday dealt the GOP its third straight loss of a solid Republican district to insurgent Democrats in this year’s special elections.

With nearly all precincts reporting, Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Childers held a 54% to 46% lead over Southaven Mayor Davis.

This is a seat that now-Senator Wicker never won with less than 63% of the vote since 1994.  Or, in other words, a seventeen point Donk-ward shift in what had been as safe a GOP seat as had existed anywhere in the country.

The trends do not look good, my fellow Pachyderms.  And the statements of the respective party congressional campaign committee chairmen pretty much sum them up.

For the 'Pubbies, the painfully lame Tom Cole:

“We are disappointed in tonight’s election results. Though the NRCC, RNC and Mississippi Republicans made a major effort to retain this seat, we came up short.

“Tonight’s election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November. First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats’ task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans.

“Second, the political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general. Therefore, Republicans must undertake bold efforts to define a forward looking agenda that offers the kind of positive change voters are looking for. This is something we can do in cooperation with our Presidential nominee, but time is short. [emphasis added]

Oh.  My.  Lord.

Hey, Tom, d'ya think maybe the identity of "our" presidential nominee might be symptomatic of why Republican grass-rootsers aren't turning out in these special congressional elections?  Whether you think that we lost the majorities in the House and Senate in 2006 because of "war fatigue" or the "six year itch," or our guys' & gals' gluttonous affinity for pork-barrel spending, even you will have to admit sooner or later that the sheer fact that "our presidential nominee" is the man who has done more than any Democrat to undermine, oppose, and obstruct what was once our party's popular conservative agenda of low taxes, smaller government, constitutionalist judges, and strong national defense over the past decade speaks volumes about the GOP's direction and the character and leanings of its so-called "leadership".

The "positive change" Republican voters want is a return to that popular conservative agenda, not aping the slogans (and governance) of the other side.  That's the schism between the Republican establishment ("McCain has occupied the center on this debate, and the GOP and conservatives should get over it....") and Republican rank & file ("What about self-preservation? What about sovereignty? What about consistent adherence to constitutional principles? Nope. We get more insipid 'change.'”) couldn't be clearer - and apparently, more irreconcilable.

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen and his party are all on the same page, and know elephantine blood when they smell it:

“After three consecutive special election defeats in districts that President Bush twice won easily, it is abundantly clear the American people have turned their back and shut the door on the special interest-driven agenda of the Republican Party. There is no district that is safe for Republican candidates.”

Until they go back to being Republicans at all, that is.  Evidently it's going to take a McCain-led bloodbath to bring about that level of repentance - if then.