The Pakistani Equation

Rank appeasement of al Qaeda and the Taliban by the newly elected Pakistani government hands the former several provinces of northwestern Pakistan as their new base of operations, out of the reach of U.S. military forces, which they put to "good" use resuming their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction.  Believing this surrender to be precisely that, even if the pacifists in Islamabad didn't, the enemy, led by Baitullah Mehsud (the "next bin Laden"), moves into their new territory and begins purging their opponents who had been left twisting in the Islamist wind, in a clear signal to their "negotiating partners" that they are next.  Whereas in neighboring Afghanistan, the Paks' el foldo creates such difficulties for the Karzai regime and its NATO backers that the latter takes the stunningly foolish step of inviting the Russians back into the country - to "help provide weapons, lines of communication, and training for the NATO effort to stabilize the nation".  And, oh by the way, to bulldoze NATO out of central Asia altogether and both relieve the pressure on Iran's northeast flank, advance the Sino-Russian sphere of influence in the region, and further isolate already-besieged-by-its-own-actions Pakistan.

With all of that bleep hitting multiple fans in such quick succession, is it any surprise that the PPP/PML-N ruling coalition in Islamabad has belatedly rediscovered the virtues of big-stick-wielding over speaking softly?:

Pakistani forces bombarded suspected militant hide-outs with mortar shells Saturday as the government launched a major offensive against Taliban fighters threatening the main city in the country’s volatile northwest, officials said.

The offensive in the Khyber tribal region marked the first major military action Pakistan’s newly elected government has taken against the militants operating in areas along the border with Afghanistan.

The government had said it preferred to try to defuse tension with the groups through negotiations, but with threats to the city of Peshawar growing in recent weeks, the military decided to take action. Khyber also is a key route for U.S. military supplies into neighboring Afghanistan.

A round-the-clock curfew was imposed in the Bara area bordering Peshawar, and heavy contingents of troops were deployed, blocking the main road into Khyber, said Mujeeb Khan, a senior local official.

Understandable fears that this action was directed only at Mehsud rival Haji Namdar so as to dub the former as THE Taliban "representative" were quickly allayed by the resounding expansion of the Pakistani Army offensive:

Paramilitary troops returned Sunday to posts they had been forced to abandon and Pakistani forces widened their offensive against militants operating in a volatile tribal area along the Afghan border, an official said.

The government launched the operation Saturday because the militants in the Khyber region presented an “immediate problem,” Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said. ….

Troops from the paramilitary Frontier Corps, backed by tanks and armored personnel carriers, quickly cleared militants out of the Bara region, said Muhammad Siddiq Khan, a local official.

A tribal paramilitary force that had been forced to abandon its posts in the region several months ago returned to the checkpoints Sunday, he said. The Frontier Corps met no resistance as it moved into other areas outside Bara, destroying militant bases along the way, he said.

The forces also destroyed a radio station used by the militants to broadcast propaganda and uncovered a torture chamber, said Rehman Malik, head of the Interior Ministry.

If the terrorists have one weakness, it is an acute lack of patience.  Prime Minister Gilani's regime was in the promise of braiding its own noose.  They'd have given Mehsud and his "Taliban umbrella" everything they asked for, no matter how outrageous or nationally suicidal, and in fairly short order.  A little time-biding and they could have walked into Islamabad and taken over without firing a shot - though you know they would have anyway.

Instead they had to demostrate once again their utter incomprehension of the concept of subtlety, kidnapping Christians, overtly encircling a major Pakistani city, and demanding its residents knuckle under to Taliban-administered Sharia law instead of Pakistani civic rule.  Now, predictably, Mehsud is all pissed and spewing bluster about "wreaking havoc" across the country if the Gilani regime doesn't reassume the sheep posture.

Which they probably will.  Gilani, remember, did describe the Talibani thrust toward Peshawar as an "immediate problem," suggesting that once the Islamists have been pushed back to their starting points still inside Pakistani territory, he'll call a halt and resume negotiations.  Pervez Musharraf's successor may not be a complete fool after all, but his folly is still strong.

The question is whether Baitullah Mehsud will continue being an even bigger moron by forcing his counterpart away from the most efficient means to his organization's conquest of Pakistan and its nuclear arsenal, or finally start figuring out how the game is played, and how to play it to win.