Back To The Numbers

Ed Morrissey on the state of the race as seen through the prism of the adjoining veepstakes:

For Obama, the VP announcement could come any time.  In fact, with his slide in the polls threatening to make 2008 look like 1972 and the McGovern campaign, it might make sense to announce this week.  If he doesn’t pick Hillary, it gives her supporters more time to “get over it” than if it happens at the convention.  The Democrats don’t want drama in Denver — they want a Unityfest, and to get there, they need to end the speculation quickly.

Democrats need a momentum shift now, not later.

What race is the lowly Hot Air junior staff blogger watching?  Since when did the former Blot Talk Radio admiral and captain of his own ship become an incurable, starry-eyed optimist?  Sure, Obama hasn't run away with things by any means, but his lead is still mid to high single-digits, right?

Wrong.  According to Rasmussen, with the exception of the week of Our Mr. Hussein's Middle East and European Vacations, he and the Dark Lord of the Sith have been in a statistical dead heat since the Fourth of July.  On the other hand, the Golden Child hasn't fallen behind Sailor, either.  The contest seems to have found its equilibrium, at least until the conventions.

Perhaps the veep selections might make some difference after all, what with all the identity politics undercurrents for Obama, and McCain's need to seal the swindle with the GOP base.  At least to the extent of giving one or the other candidate a leg up as the stretch run begins.

Nothing to leap for joy about if you're a conservative....wait, let me rephrase that.  Nothing to leap for joy about if you're a Republican....no, that's still not right.  Nothing to leap for if you're a McCainiac, but given where the conventional wisdom says Obama ought to be (i.e. in triple-figures), it's vastly better than they could ever have imagined.