Hibernation's End

The Russian bear has awakened from its seventeen-year slumber, and has begun the process of rebuilding the Soviet-era empire once again:

Georgian troops pushed into the separatist province of South Ossetia Friday, attacking with aircraft, tanks and artillery. The conflict threatens a wider war with Russia, which has peacekeeping troops in the area and began moving reinforcements into the province Friday, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, speaking in Beijing where he is attending the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, said Georgia’s action was a matter of “grave concern and it will certainly lead to retaliatory actions.”

Russian state television showed pictures of a column of tanks and troops that it said was already inside South Ossetia. “Additional reinforcements has been sent to the region to help the peacekeepers prevent bloodshed,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Hey, the Wermacht didn't begin with a blitzkrieg across Europe.  Hitler re-occupied the Rhineland first, then came the annexation of Austria, then the shakedown of Czechoslovakia, and so on.  Indeed, Czar (nee "Prime Minister") Vladimir has been using subversion and diplomatic bullying to "get the Union back together" for the bulk of this decade, 2004's meddling in that year's Ukrainian elections being the most prominent example of it.

In the Georgian instance, that country's two "breakaway" provinces (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) has been a loose end at which the Russians have been picking since the early 1990s.  The two provinces aren't overly important to Moscow in and of themselves, but are, understandably, very important to the tiny Caucasus state.  It isn't just a matter of their resources or geostrategic considerations; it's one of national prestige and credibility.  Georgia cannot allow Russia to dismember it piecemeal, which is precisely what the latter has been doing, or risk being inexorably picked apart and reabsorbed by its giant neighbor.

That is, logically, why the Georgians sent in troops to crush the Russian-backed South Ossetian separatists.  They wanted to reassert their control over the two provinces while they still had the capability of doing so.  But more strategically, they wanted to send Moscow a message, and ensure that any Russian counterattack would draw international attention to the situation, as well as to Russian imperialist intentions.

That attention was not long in coming - as in within twenty-four hours:

Russian air attacks over northern Georgia intensified on Saturday morning, striking two apartment buildings in the city of Gori and clogging roads out of the area with fleeing refugees.

Russian authorities said their forces had retaken the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, from Georgian control during the morning hours. They reported that fifteen Russian peacekeepers and 1,500 civilians have been killed in the conflict.

Georgian forces shot down ten Russian combat planes over the last two days, according to Alexander Lomaya, secretary of the Georgian National Security Council.

Shota Utiashvili, an official at the Georgian Interior Ministry, called the attack on Gori a “major escalation,” and said he expected attacks to increase over the course of Saturday. He said some sixteen Russian planes were in the air over Georgian territory at any given time on Saturday, four times the number of sorties seen Friday. 

Now for what tactical military purpose, we might ask, does the Russian Air Force need to bomb Georgian cities outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia, cutting down Georgia civilians by the hundreds (so far), if all Czar Vladimir is attempting to do is protect his "peacekeeping" forces?  One might get the idea that he's attempting to seize this opportunity to openly conquer those two provinces and decimate the remainder of Georgia so thoroughly that it'll be easy pickings for Moscow to take the next time - assuming Vlad doesn't go for that throat now.

However, there is a reason why the old Soviet regime was so patient in its game of planetary "chess".  They always made sure not to tip their hand until checkmate was within their grasp.  By "letting his mask slip," Vladimir Putin has provoked a response he wasn't expecting - not from the dormant United States, but an old rival a lot closer to home:

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said the deployment of a Russian naval squadron to Georgia’s Black sea coast has the potential of drawing Ukraine into the conflict.

“In order to prevent the circumstances in which Ukraine could be drawn into a military conflict … Ukraine reserves the right to bar ships which may take part in these actions from returning to Ukrainian territory until the conflict is solved,” said the statement which was posted on the ministry’s Web site.

The Russians have leases on Ukrianian ports through 2017 for their Black Sea fleet.  Or had them, anyway.  Now that naval squadron will have no home port to which to return for refit and restocking.  Without Sevastopol and their other bases, the Russian invasion of Georgia will be more difficult to sustain.

The beauty of this move on Kiev's part is that it is, technically, NOT an action against the Russians, but rather an assertion of neutrality in this conflict, no different than a demurral against sending Ukrainian forces to join in the Russian onslaught.  The practical effect is that it seriously impedes Russian supply lines and complicates matters for Moscow by imposing tactical military, but far greater strategic political, costs for their "private little war" in terms of how the perception of the Putin regime is changed from quasi-friend/quasi-rival to to quasi-rival/quasi-enemy.  Remember their smuggling of various conventional weaponry to the regime of Saddam Hussein before and during Operation Iraqi Freedom, their assistance to Iran's nuclear weapons program (directly and via its UN Security Council obstructionism) and its air defense, and their Cold War-esque nuclear brinksmanship.  This is one more big brick in a wall that is getting harder and harder to deny.

Except, of course, to those for whom denial is a lifestyle unto itself:

“I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict,” [Senator Barack Hussein] Obama said in a written statement. “Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected.”

Typical amoral pacifist diplospeak, as though it is war itself that is bad, and the details of who attacked whom and why are irrelevant.  Plus, Lucifer's keepers probably had to explain to him that the Red Army had not, after all, come storming ashore at Savannah.

After that little briefing, Obamessiah sounded a tad less ignorant, but not much:

Obama called for direct talks among all sides and said the United States, the U.N. Security Council and other parties should try to help bring about a peaceful resolution.

“I condemn Russia’s aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an immediate ceasefire,” Obama said in a statement.

“Russia must stop its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia.”

And if they don't stop, cease, and withdraw, what then, Most High?  But, of course, if HE was president, why, Putin would throw himself on his face before President God, sobbingly begging for His Unholiness' forgiveness for his grievous sin, and not only immediately stop, cease, and withdraw, but offer all Russian territory in the Caucasus to Georgia as reparations.  Right?

Darth Queeg's statement wasn't materially different, but it did at least offer specific actions that could have some positive effect, especially as we're not about to declare war on the Russian Federation:

Today news reports indicate that Russian military forces crossed an internationally-recognized border into the sovereign territory of Georgia. Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory. What is most critical now is to avoid further confrontation between Russian and Georgian military forces. The consequences for Euro-Atlantic stability and security are grave.

The government of Georgia has called for a cease-fire and for a resumption of direct talks on South Ossetia with international mediators. The U.S. should immediately convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to reverse course. The US should immediately work with the EU and the OSCE to put diplomatic pressure on Russia to reverse this perilous course it has chosen. We should immediately call a meeting of the North Atlantic Council to assess Georgia’s security and review measures NATO can take to contribute to stabilizing this very dangerous situation. Finally, the international community needs to establish a truly independent and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia.

South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) don't need "independent and neutral peacekeeping forces", first, because peacekeepers never keep the peace, and second, because the source of the peace-breaking is Russian proxies trying to dismember Georgia a piece at a time.  What the two provinces need is for the Georgians to be given a free hand to eradicate the "separatists" and the Russians given an ultimatum to kindly stay the hell out of it or risk the former Soviet province being offered NATO membership.

If this was a "3 AM moment," I would give McCain a C-, and Obama (and President Bush, who also issued a bland "both side must exercise restraint" statement before ultimately aping Maverick) would flunk.  Which is good for Sailor only if grading on a curve; something the Chosen One might have figured out by now but for the colossal albatross that is his towering, brittle ego:

John McCain’s top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, defended McCain’s direct criticism of Russia in the early hours of the crisis.

"Senator McCain is clearly willing to note who he thinks is the aggressor here,” he said, dismissing the notion that Georgia’s move into its renegade province had precipitated the crisis. "I don't think you can excuse, defend, explain or make allowance for Russian behavior because of what is going on in Georgia.”

He also criticized Obama for calling on both sides to show “restraint,” and suggested the Democrat was putting too much blame on the conflict’s clear victim.

“That's kind of like saying after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, that Kuwait and Iraq need to show restraint, or like saying in 1968 [when the Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia] ... that the Czechoslovaks should show restraint,” he said....

Scheunemann was, until earlier this year, registered to lobby for the government of Georgia.

A public relations firm working for the Russian Federation pointed out Scheunemann’s lobbying past to reporters — a sign that McCain’s stance is not, for better or worse, being welcomed in Moscow — as did Obama’s campaign.

“John McCain’s top foreign policy adviser lobbied for, and has a vested interest in, the Republic of Georgia and McCain has mirrored the position advocated by the government,” said Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan, noting that the “appearance of a conflict of interest” was a consequence of McCain’s too-close ties to lobbyists. [emphasis added] 

So Lord Queeg isn't slamming the Russians for using South Ossetian separatism as a pretext for an all-out invasion of Georgia because....the Russians are using South Ossetian separatism as a pretext for an all-out invasion of Georgia, or because he's been a staunch supporter of Georgian democracy and westernization for the past eleven years, or because it's the right thing to do, but because his foreign policy advisor is a dirty, filthy lobbyist.  And/or maybe because Georgian President Mikhil Saakashvili "bribed" McCain with an antique sword two years ago.

Take this interlude as a sneak preview of what the ensuing four, or eight (or ten, according to BO) years of a Hussein foreign policy will evolve into in practice: the president of the United States becoming the sychophantic poodle of America's enemies, selling out us and our allies to whatever levels he thinks will curry their favor, friendship, and goodwill.

And where Georgia will most definitely NOT be on his mind....