Withdrawal Is Not In Their Vocabulary

Not to be alarmist or anything, but doesn't this ensuing series of developments arising from the Russian invasion of Georgia bear an awfully striking resemblance to what used to be known as "escalation"?

In practical, nuts & bolts terms, the United States was never going to intervene militarily in Georgia.  Even if we had the forces in place to do so, it is not in our strategic interest to get into a shooting war with the Russians at a time when we're finishing the job in Iraq, staring down the barrel of Iranian nukes, and dancing on the sharp edge of losing Pakistan to al Qaeda before Afghanistan can be fully stabilized.  Especially as they have clients in our strategic back yard (Cuba and Venezuela) that could potentially hit us hard if we did so.

We are doing what we can, though, even if it doesn't seem like much:

President Bush said Wednesday that the Pentagon had begun a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission to ease the suffering in Georgia, and that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would travel to France and then to Georgia to work for a settlement of the crisis…

Mr. Bush said that a transport plane with medical supplies was already on its way to Georgia, and that American air and naval forces would carry out the aid mission. And he said pointedly that Russia must not interfere with aid arriving in Georgia by air, land or water…

However, minutes after Mr. Bush’s comments, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia characterized the import of the American aid as “definitely an American military presence” and called it a “turning point.”…

“What I expected specifically from America was to secure our airport and to secure our seaports,” he went on, concluding that the American presence would do so. “The main thing now is that the Georgian Tbilisi airport will be permanently under control.”

It isn't what Saakashvili was hoping for - nothing less than the aforementioned U.S. military intervention - but Ace and AP see it as a "tripwire," a token American force not unlike our half-century long presence in South Korea that is a deterrent against the Russians going any further (at the very least) and an "encouragement" for them to knuckle under to our demands for their withdrawal (at the wishful-thinking best).

Call me cynical, call me a pessimist, but somehow I don't think Czar Vlad is either intimidated or dazzled by our hollow seat-of-the-pants brinksmanship:

We understand that this current Georgian leadership is a special project of the United States, but one day the United States will have to choose between defending its prestige over a virtual project or real partnership which requires joint action.

More specifically pertaining to Georgia itself, Putin's deputy followed up his ruler's thoughts thusly:

President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia said Thursday that Russia would act as an international guarantor of the two pro-Russian enclaves at the center of the crisis with Georgia, and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov said that Georgia’s territorial integrity was “de facto limited because of the war.”

Together, the comments offered a sharp retort to President Bush’s insistence a day earlier that “the sovereign and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected.”…

According to Reuters, he said: “Russia’s position is unchanged: we will support any decisions taken by the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in accordance with the U.N. Charter,” adding that “not only do we support but we will guarantee them.”

“One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state,” Mr. Lavrov said, The Associated Press reported.

Translation: Same as last weekend - the Red Army is back in Georgia to stay.  And right now they're busily engaged in systematically laying waste to the Georgian military bases the defending forces were forced to abandon, including, presumeably, the airfields that we would need to fly in the humanitarian assistance Dubya promised.

Oh, and did I forget to mention the best part of all?  This conquest consolidation on Moscow's part is essentially allowed by the first French-brokered "cease-fire."  Which ought to give you a sneak preview about what will transpire when this mess inevitably goes to the UN, on whose Security Council Russia, don't forget, has a veto.

This situation, in other words, cannot be resolved by "soft power".  Yet we're not in a position to stop the Russians militarily in-theatre, and we don't want a shooting war with a heavily-nuclear armed regime feeling its petro-dollar-fueled Napoleonic oats and with a trigger finger of uncertain itchiness.  So what can we do?

Remember your chess:

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the United States had agreed to help augment Poland’s defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing ten missile defense interceptors in the eastern European country…

While Washington says the defense system is meant to guard Europe against missile-armed states like Iran, the Kremlin feels it is aimed at Russia’s missile force, and [parliamentary foreign affairs committe chairman Konstantin] Kosachev told the Interfax news agency the deal will spark “a real rise in tensions in Russian-American relations.”…

No, the Kremlin doesn't "feel" that a paltry ten interceptors are aimed at their hundreds-of-times-that-size missile force.  Rather, they recognize the chess move and are so confident in their upper-handedness over us that they feel free to use it to escalate the East-West confrontation further, believing that we will inevitably back down, causing us a proportionately larger loss of prestige.  A conclusion not unreinforced by the remainder of the Polish PM's comments:

Talking about the “mutual commitment” part of the agreement, Tusk said that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be too slow in coming to Poland’s defense if Poland were threatened and that the bloc would take “days, weeks to start that machinery.”

“Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later - it is no good when assistance comes to dead people. Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of - knock on wood - any possible conflict,” Tusk said.

Translation: don't abandon us like you did the Georgians.  Which makes me wonder why we're only putting a measley ten missile interceptors in Poland given that the very action of installing ANY is being used by Putin as a propaganda tool aimed at calling our strategic bluff.

And when Czar Vlad calls a bluff, he doesn't mess around:

Putin is threatening nuclear war if we put ten friggin' missile interceptors in Poland?  Did this really start out as a minor military incursion on the Caucasus Peninsula just a week ago?  Or have we reached the level where it's becoming obvious that Putin is bluffing?

Meanwhile, back in Georgia, the Russians accepted the more balanced cease-fire Secretary Rice brought with her:

The agreement now sets the stage for a Russian troop withdrawal from Georgia after more than a week of warfare. It was not immediately clear if any troops had begun pulling back.

The cease-fire agreement calls for both sides forces to pull back to positions they held before fighting erupted August 8 after Georgia launched a massive barrage to try to take control of the Russian-backed separatist region of South Ossetia. The Russian army quickly overwhelmed the forces of the former Soviet republic neighbor and then drove deep into Georgia.

The plan appears to leave some tense issues open to interpretation, including whether Georgia will be able to send troops back into parts of South Ossetia.

However, not surprisingly, as of today the Russian retreat has yet to materialize:

Bush told reporters at his Texas ranch that Russia took “a hopeful step” earlier in the day with an agreement to cease hostilities and pull back its forces. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed the deal at the Black Sea resort of Sochi after meeting with Russia’s Security Council, according to a Russian news agency.

But Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said later that “extra security measures” were necessary before any troops could be removed — a stance that U.S. and Georgian officials said was at odds with the French-negotiated agreement.

Bottom line: the Russian Army went into Georgia because they knew we couldn't stop them; they're staying there because they know we can't, and won't, drive them out.  And they're going to ride that coup as far as we'll let them take it.

Kinda puts our presidential election in better perspective, doesn't it?