The Widening Gyre

Must not get cocky...must not get cocky...must not get cocky....

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.

McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied.

It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.

No, actually, it comes from Lucifer's analogizing Sarah Palin to a pig from Tuesday.  That is, at least, the most proximate cause to this sudden four point shift.  Evidently, a lot of respondents took that gaffe the way Hugh Hewitt did.  It already looks like it may end up being Barack Obama's "macaca moment," the watershed point back to which his eventual defeat can be traced, when his candidacy "jumped the shark".

Rasmussen also now projects McCain slightly ahead in the Electoral College, and Zogby (get that gonzo salt shaker ready) has Maverick pulling away in Florida, retaking solid leads in Nevada and Colorado, turning New Hampshire "red" again, and five points ahead in Pennsylvania.  Perhaps Zogby didn't turn against Republicans, but just George W. Bush?

But that's, well....Zogby.  You want to be cleaning your monitors momentarily?  Get a load of this:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just three percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year. …

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by five percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Thank you, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, for obstructing domestic energy exploration in the face of four dollar a gallon gasoline, recessing Congress for a month and turning out the lights and microphones in the House chamber rather than let GOP representatives even give pro-drilling speeches from the floor.  Thank you, Godbama, for shafting Hillary Clinton, going with Slow Joe Biden, and leaving the McCain veep door open wide enough for a Barracuda to swim through.  Thank you, Obamanation, for trying to eradicate this "American Thatcher" and making her perhaps the most popular Republican, male or female, since Ronald Reagan.  And thanks, again, Barry, for comparing her to a pig in front of the entire country.  You people have taken would could have been the biggest Democrat triumph since at least 1992 - perhaps 1964 - and are turning it into the largest electoral debacle since the GOP kicked Congress and the White House to Harry Truman in 1948.

I guess the ancient saying is true: Whom gods destroy, they first make mad."  But I still prefer the biblical version: "Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall."

I wonder if Allahpundit's pessimism meter has blown up yet.

UPDATE: Consider the Gallup generic congressional lurch toward the GOP confirmed.  Also, the same Associated Press survey shows 11% more respondents considering Barack Hussein Obama too inexperienced to be president than.....Sarah Palin is to be vice president.

Is Darth Queeg as genuinely insidious as his namesake, or is The Chosen One that boneheaded?  And is the former insidious enough to finally reel me into voting for him?  I have to admit, I'm weakening....