Terror, War & Twilight (10/7/09)

Evidently seeking to slow down the Afghanistan "RETREEEEEEEAT!" momentum in the leftwingnut press and grassroots, SecDef Bob Gates reiterated on Monday that we're not going anywhere - yet:

“We are not leaving Afghanistan. This discussion is about next steps forward and the president has some momentous decisions to make,” Gates said in a TV program taped at George Washington University that will be aired by CNN on Tuesday…

“The reality is that because of our inability, and the inability, frankly, of our allies, (for putting) enough troops into Afghanistan, the Taliban do have the momentum right now, it seems,” Gates said.

However, he said the United States could not afford to give al Qaeda and the Taliban the propaganda victory of a U.S. retreat in Afghanistan, where mujahideen forced the Soviet Union to withdraw in 1989 after a decade of bloody warfare…

“What’s more important than that in my view is the message that it sends that empowers al Qaeda … The notion that they have come back from this defeat, come back from 2002, to challenge not only the United States but NATO, forty-two nations, is a hugely empowering message should they be successful.” he said.

Good news, no?  Well, that depends on what the Li'l President does about General McChrystal's request for 40,000 troop reinforcements, doesn't it?  Give him what he needs, and we will win in Afghanistan as we did with the "Surge" in Iraq.  Leave him with the inadequate forces he has currently and the question is not if we'll be driven out of the Af-Pak theater, but when and how many additional futile casualties will be the price tag for the "honor" with which we'll choose to lose.

Today B.O. backed up Gates:

Obama told congressional leaders that he is not contemplating reducing troop levels in the near term under any scenario, according to several participants, and White House press secretary Robert Gibbs reiterated Tuesday that withdrawing from Afghanistan is "not an option." A complete U.S. troop withdrawal is one of the straw men to which Kerry — and the president, in the meeting — referred.

Of course, you do have to bear in mind Geraghty's Law in any absolute declaration this man makes.  And even as he was vehemently denying the contemplation of what his Fifth Column base is demanding, it required a not insignificant backpedal from what had so recently whetted their ravenous appetite for U.S. defeat:

Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden made it clear that the option Mr. Biden had proposed was not a pure counterterrorism alternative, relying only on drones and Special Forces to track down leaders of Al Qaeda. Instead, Mr. Biden’s approach would increase the use of such surgical strikes while leaving the overall size of the American force in Afghanistan roughly at the 68,000 troops currently authorized.

This is because successful counterterrorism operations require timely and accurate intelligence, and that comes from having boots on the ground in close proximity that can supply it.  Which might - just might - be why the Taliban is pushing their offensive against us so hard right now.  They've taken the measure of Barack Obama and found a weak, pacifistic "paper tiger" that can be driven before them if they inflict enough American and Allied casualties.  Kill enough of us, make it bloody and painful enough and he'll be less subtle about cutting & running, believing it more saleable to the American public.  And, voila!  No more boots on the ground in the Af-Pak theater, our counterterrorism operations dwindle in effectiveness, the Taliban returns to power, al Qaeda sets up shop again, and the North American offensive resumes with a vengeance.

Or, to put it more concisely, False Messiah is counting in al Qaeda and the Taliban to give him political cover for the withdrawal he's truly sought from the beginning - and out of which his congressional myrmidons have no intention of allowing him to weasel.

But might there be a valid political reason giving The One pause?  Certainly any withdrawal would be a huge gamble that the homeland wouldn't get hit again before November 2012, which makes what amounts to a bug-out at the end of 2010 or early 2011 a safer bet for his re-election chances than quitting Afghanistan now.  But if even Code Pink is questioning the abandonment of the "REAL War on Terror," mightn't that suggest that a huge public backlash might smash into what's left of his presidency even before AQ could strike again?