Hits & Falls

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 565,000. This is 3.1% (±2.0%) below the revised June rate of 583,000 and is 3.7% (±2.2%) below the July 2009 estimate of 587,000.

Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 416,000; this is 1.2% (±1.2%)* below the revised June figure of 421,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 129,000 in July....

Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000. This is 1.7% (±9.7%)* above the revised June estimate of 537,000, but is 7.0% (±7.5%)* below the July 2009 rate of 587,000.

Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 432,000; this is 4.2% (±8.7%)* below the revised June figure of 451,000.  The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 95,000.

The National Association of Home Builders said its monthly index of builders’ sentiment about the housing market fell to 13, the lowest reading since March 2009. The index is adjusted for seasonal factors.

Readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market. The last time the index was above 50 was in April 2006.

Fewer people are buying new homes, even though prices have stabilized in the past year and those who have good credit can qualify for the lowest mortgage rates in decades. The market is struggling because jobs are scarce and credit is tight. And many analysts predict home prices are likely to drop again in the fall.

“Buyers just aren’t stepping up to the plate,” wrote Mike Larson, real estate analyst with Weiss Research. “Unless and until the job market improves, we are simply not going to get any traction in the housing market.”

And speaking of the job market improving....:

In the week ending August 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 474,500.

“The truth is it’s going to take a few years to fully dig ourselves out of this recession,” Obama said. “Anybody who tells you otherwise is just looking for your vote. But here’s what I can tell you: After eighteen months, I have never been more confident that our nation is headed in the right direction.”