Tilted

***The West Virginia Senate race moves in my ratings from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat:

West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese continue to run a surprisingly close race in the state's special Senate election to replace the late Robert Byrd.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia shows Manchin with 50% support and Raese with 45%, when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

The West Virginia race now moves from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Less than two weeks ago, the first post-primary survey of the race moved it from Solid Democratic to Leans Democratic.

Remember, I don't have a "toss-up" category (unless a race is literally tied).

The usual factors are contributing to this race's tightening - the GOP wave, the loathing of ObamaCare, the Red Barry anchor - but there's one more that is unique unto this particular contest and is downright fascinating:

It’s telling that Manchin hasn’t gotten to 50% in a state where his job approval ratings are through the roof.  Voters don’t want to send Democrats to Congress, not even very popular Democrats who have won amazing bases of support within their states.  In this case, West Virginia voters can eat their Manchin cake and have a Republican cake in the Senate too by keeping Manchin right where they want him most, instead of providing Barack Obama and Harry Reid another vote for the current Democratic agenda that includes a cap-and-trade bill that will kill the economy in their state.

It's almost as if West Virginnies like The Chin so much that they're afraid to send him to D.C., where he'll get assimilated into the Beltway Donk Collective and never be seen again, just like other one-time popular centrist Donk "red" state governors like Evan Bayh and Ben "Cornhusker Kickback" Nelson, both smashed on the rocks of ObamaCare.

Makes me wonder if his guberantorial approval rating will take a hit from the rather naked ambition he's displayed in so conspicuously pursuing the Byrd seat.

***The Illinois Senate race moves from Toss-Up (tie - Donk hold) to leans Republican.

Here's why:

And being, you know, a mob banker and that other stuff.

No word yet on whether tighty-righties are going to sue to get Mark Kirk replaced as Gia-pet's GOP opponent with "true conservative" Alan Keyes....

Projected 112th Senate: GOP 51, Democrats 49.