Cause & Effect Or Just The Garishly Obvious?

The latest NRSC ad suggesting to West Virginas that Governor Joe Manchin be "grounded":

And wouldn'tcha know, West Virginas feel the same way!:

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Senator Robert Byrd for fifty-one years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a five-point lead over Democratic Governor Joe Manchin among likely voters -- 48% to 43%.

In what may be the year’s clearest case of Obama’s downward pull on his party’s candidates, Manchin gets high marks from voters – 66% approved of his job performance and 65% had a positive view of him personally -- but they still prefer Raese.

The survey was conducted before new reports that the head of the state’s Democratic Party, Manchin’s former chief of staff and business partner Larry Puccio, is under scrutiny by federal investigators for state contracts obtained under Manchin.

Manchin’s most obvious problem is Obama’s 29% approval rating in the state. Only 12% believe that Obama’s policies have helped the state economically, while 55% in the coal-rich state believe they have hurt. That is borne out in the slim 28% of respondents who supported a plan to address global warming like the one Obama favors. 

That's the beauty of the NRSC ad - they take a swipe at The Chin as "Washington Joe," but the central theme is jiu-jitsuing the idea of keeping him where he is instead of sending him to D.C. where he'd go the dishonorable way of other erstwhile "red" state Donk "centrists" as Evan Bayh and Ben "Cornhusker Kickback" Nelson that knuckled under on ObamaCare.  In this cycle, it's a guaranteed winning argument, and one that The Chin can do little or nothing about, and the attempt at which (assuming going full-bore negative into that 29% O-pproval rating) could seriously erode his gubernatorial good will with his re-election to that office looming only two years from now.

UPDATE: John Raese's lead grows to six, and puts the West Virginia Senate race into the "Likely Republican" category.

Did I mention that as a special election, the winner will be seated immediately for the post-Election Lame Duck session?  With a similar Mark Kirk win in Illinois, that's a two seat pickup that would come in mighty handy to offset any RINO treachery.