Inexplicable

Somebody help me out here, because when it comes to the West Virginia Senate race, I'm hopelessly confused.

I know about Governor Joe Manchin's NRA ad where he puts a bullet right through the heart of a representation of Red Barry's cap & trade bill, and how it gave him a poll boost a few weeks back.  But that dissipated fairly rapidly, and as little as two weeks ago Republican John Raese was back up by seven, count 'em, SEVEN points.  Since then we've been treated to more highlights of The Chin's appalling ObamaCare flip-flopping, and now the federal corruption investigation of his West Virginia administration is percolating toward the boiling point:

A federal investigation into West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin’s administration has taken a disturbing turn for his Democratic supporters: agents reportedly have subpoenaed the director of the state Aviation Division, along with flight logs and records for official government aircraft.

The news comes just after federal prosecutors privately asked a judge to delay the sentencing of a contractor who got a no-bid contract to redecorate Manchin’s office. And the developments are set against an ongoing government probe reportedly involving state Democratic Party chairman Larry Puccio, Manchin’s former chief of staff.

It’s highly unlikely the federal investigation will be resolved before Election Day, and the exact details of the probe, which apparently stem from state contracts, are still unclear. But the headlines about possible wrongdoing in the governor’s office – and rumors swirling around his former top aide – threaten to hamstring Manchin in his tight Senate race with millionaire businessman John Raese, with the Democrats’ control of the Senate at stake.

Every one of these factors is a black mark, and together they evince the stink of corruption and careerism, precisely the traits that voters detest the most in this cycle.  So Raese is pulling away and waving bye-bye to The Chin in his rear-view mirror, yes?

Er, no:

Democratic Governor Joe Manchin has been in overdrive in recent days to distance himself from President Obama and congressional Democrats, and now he’s edged back into a three-point advantage in West Virginia’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely West Virginia Voters finds Manchin with 49% support to Republican John Raese’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)  

This is the first time Manchin’s had any edge in the polling since mid-September, and the race now moves from Leans Republican to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Sure, I know all the reasons why Manchin should have run away with this race to begin with - he's vastly popular as governor, West Virginia is a hugely Donk state in terms of registration (though not ideology) - but neither prevented the bottom from falling out beneath him back in September, and I haven't seen anything negative come out about Raese in recent days.  So what has fueled this ten point surge in as many days?  What possible reason do Mountaineers have to "come home" at the last turn?

Exit questions: Isn't the governorship the consolation prize of this Senate race no matter which man comes out on top?  And he wins and the Senate lands at 50-50 after the dust clears, might a Senator Chin become the Jim Jeffords of 2011?