Three Weeks Out

SAFE REPUBLICAN (GOP +10 or more)

ALABAMA: SHELBY 58%, Barnes 30% (hold)

ALASKA: Miller 42%, MURKOWSKI 27%, McAdams 25% (hold)

ARIZONA: McCAIN 55%, Glassman 34 (hold)

ARKANSAS; Boozman 55%, LINCOLN 37% (pickup)

FLORIDA: Rubio 44%, Crist 28%, Meek 19% (hold)

GEORGIA: ISAKSON 53%, Thurmond 38% (hold)

IDAHO: CRAPO 63%, Sullivan 24% (hold)

INDIANA: Coats 50%, Ellsworth 34% (pickup)

IOWA: GRASSLEY 55%, Conlin 37% (hold)

KANSAS: Moran 66%, Johnston 24% (hold)

LOUISIANA: VITTER 52%, Meloncon 34% (hold)

NORTH CAROLINA: BURR 54%, Marshall 34% (hold)

NORTH DAKOTA: Hoeven 68%, Potter 25% (pickup)

OHIO: Portman 53%, Fisher 37% (hold)

OKLAHOMA: COBURN 67%, Rogers 24% (hold)

SOUTH CAROLINA: DeMINT 63%, Greene 19% (hold)

UTAH: Lee 58%, Granato 28% (hold)

WISCONSIN: Johnson 54%, FEINGOLD 42% (pickup)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN (GOP +5-10)

COLORADO: Buck 49%, BENNET 44% (pickup)

KENTUCKY: Paul 49%, Conway 43% (hold)

MISSOURI: Blunt 51%, Carnahan 43% (hold)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Ayotte 51%, Hodes 44% (hold)

PENNSYLVANIA: Toomey 49%, Sestak 41% (pickup)

WEST VIRGINIA: Raese 50%, Manchin 44%, (pickup)

LEANS REPUBLICAN (GOP +0-5)

ILLINOIS: Kirk 45%, Giannoulias 41% (pickup)

NEVADA: Angle 50%, REID 46% (pickup)

WASHINGTON: Rossi 48%, MURRAY 45% (pickup)

LEANS DEMOCRAT (Donks +0-5)

CALIFORNIA: BOXER 48%, Fiorina 44% (hold)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT (Donks +5-9)

SAFE DEMOCRAT (Donks +10 or more)

CONNECTICUT: Blumenthal 54%, McMahon 43% (hold)

DELAWARE: Coons 54%, O'Donnell 41% (hold)

HAWAII: INOUYE (hold)

MARYLAND: MIKULSKI 54%, Wargotz 38% (hold)

NEW YORK: SCHUMER 60%, Townsend 30% (hold)

NEW YORK: GILLIBRAND 54%, DeGuardi 35% (hold)

OREGON: WYDEN 54%, Huffman 37% (hold)

Connecticut (for reasons unfathomable) and the Hot One in New York resolidify for the Dems, while West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina move further into the Republican column. The margin change of the week is Washington and Nevada flipping back into the GOP leaners column, aka seats fifty and fifty-one. Hence my new nickname for Dino Rossi.

I don't think Scotty B. should mind the borderline gimmick infringement too awfully much, do you?