Two Weeks Out

Erosion....

SAFE REPUBLICAN (GOP +10 or more)

ALABAMA: SHELBY 58%, Barnes 30% (hold)

ARIZONA: McCAIN 55%, Glassman 34 (hold)

ARKANSAS; Boozman 55%, LINCOLN 37% (pickup)

FLORIDA: Rubio 44%, Crist 28%, Meek 19% (hold)

GEORGIA: ISAKSON 53%, Thurmond 38% (hold)

IDAHO: CRAPO 63%, Sullivan 24% (hold)

INDIANA: Coats 50%, Ellsworth 34% (pickup)

IOWA: GRASSLEY 55%, Conlin 37% (hold)

KANSAS: Moran 66%, Johnston 24% (hold)

LOUISIANA: VITTER 51%, Meloncon 35% (hold)

NORTH CAROLINA: BURR 54%, Marshall 34% (hold)

NORTH DAKOTA: Hoeven 68%, Potter 25% (pickup)

OHIO: Portman 57%, Fisher 34% (hold)

OKLAHOMA: COBURN 67%, Rogers 24% (hold)

PENNSYLVANIA: Toomey 49%, Sestak 39% (pickup)

SOUTH CAROLINA: DeMINT 63%, Greene 19% (hold)

UTAH: Lee 58%, Granato 28% (hold)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN (GOP +5-10)

KENTUCKY: Paul 49%, Conway 43% (hold)

MISSOURI: Blunt 51%, Carnahan 43% (hold)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Ayotte 51%, Hodes 44% (hold)

WISCONSIN: Johnson 52%, FEINGOLD 45% (pickup)

LEANS REPUBLICAN (GOP +0-5)

ALASKA: Miller 35%, MURKOWSKI 34%, McAdams 27% (hold)

COLORADO: Buck 47%, BENNET 45% (pickup)

NEVADA: Angle 49%, REID 47% (pickup)

WEST VIRGINIA: Raese 49%, Manchin 46%, (pickup)

LEANS DEMOCRAT (Donks +0-5)

CALIFORNIA: BOXER 49%, Fiorina 46% (hold)

ILLINOIS: Giannoulias 44%, Kirk 43% (hold)

WASHINGTON: MURRAY 48%, Rossi 47% (hold)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT (Donks +5-9)

CONNECTICUT: Blumenthal 51%, McMahon 46% (hold)

SAFE DEMOCRAT (Donks +10 or more)

DELAWARE: Coons 53%, O'Donnell 37% (hold)

HAWAII: INOUYE 53%, Cavasso 40% (hold)

MARYLAND: MIKULSKI 54%, Wargotz 38% (hold)

NEW YORK: SCHUMER 60%, Townsend 30% (hold)

NEW YORK: GILLIBRAND 54%, DeGuardi 35% (hold)

OREGON: WYDEN 54%, Huffman 35% (hold)

No getting around it, this was a bad week for Republican hopes of retaking the Senate. Five pick-up races moved a category toward the Democrats (Johnson in Wisconsin, Buck in Colorado, Raese in West Virginia, Kirk in Illinois, Rossi in Washington), with the latter two flipping to "Leans Democrat" holds. Thus the downgrade of net GOP pickups from last week's ten to this week's eight.

But the biggest sinus-clearer was Joe Miller's effort to hold Alaska collapsing from "Safe GOP" to "Leans GOP". I don't know where Luella Murk Vil would caucus if her write-in scheme bears rotten fruit, but I most definitely do not want to find out.

If it's any consolation, Toomsday in Pennsylvania went from "Likely GOP" to "Safe GOP," and Linda McMahon is once again closing in on "Hanoi Dick" in Connecticut. It's just that last few points that are such a beeyatch.