The Great Republican Fratricide Of 2012?

Six Senate seats gained in 2010, but so many more left on the table, though not all due to Tea Party myopia.  Ken Buck was the victim of the GOP's gubernatorial debacle at the top of the Colorado ticket; had Scott McIness and Dan Maes not imploded ethically in depressing succession leaving Tom F'ing Tancredo as the center-right's only hope against The Dem They Call Hickenlooper, we'd be celebrating Senator-elect Buck right alongside Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey, et al today.  Sharon Angle is a 'tweener case, a weaker general election candidate than Sue Lowden would have been, but also the victim of SEIU shenanigans ordered up by Team Pencilneck in the waning days of the campaign.

But Christine O'Donnell....ugh, don't get me started.

This is what I think puts the glee into this Politico piece that ought to otherwise read like a pre-emptive funeral dirge:

Another bloody Republican Senate primary election season is taking shape for 2012, with potentially serious intra-party challenges percolating in close to a half-dozen states.

Polls indicate that at least two veteran GOP senators are highly vulnerable to challenges on their right flank — Utah Senator Orrin Hatch and Maine Senator Olympia Snowe – and there are rumblings about potential GOP bids against Nevada Senator John Ensign, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Indiana Senator Dick Lugar as well.

On the whole, the 2012 map looks extremely promising for the GOP. After posting a six-seat gain in 2010, Republicans are in a position to pick up even more seats in the 2012 cycle, with twenty-one Democratic senators up for re-election, including two Independents who caucus with them, compared to just ten Republicans.

But the possibility of multiple fractious primary challenges casts a shadow over the 2012 cycle after an election season marked by two GOP Senate incumbents who were denied renomination, a third who switched parties to avoid a tough primary and several other messy primaries that likely cost the party a chance at winning a majority.

Um, no, not quite.  Though we took a look ahead at the 2012 senatorial field last week, from the standpoint of Democrat incumbents.  So let's look at these Pachyderms in turn.

INDIANA: Dick Lugar I won't be sweating vis-a-vie a primarying, as the Hoosier state "redified" back up nicely this cycle.  Besides, I can't think of any TP-approved challengers that would pose a serious threat other than Mike Pence, and Ensign Ed makes a sound point that if he'd wanted a Senate seat, he'd have gotten in for Evan Bayh's.

MAINE: Olympia Snowe's gone across the aisle.  And sooner rather than later.  Count on it.  The only real question is whether she'll take Susan Collins and Scott Brown with her.

NEVADA: Is John Ensign really as vulnerable as conventional wisdom is suggesting?  Count me as skeptical.  And even moreso in terms of who the TPers could come up with as a credible primary challenger who could also be a credible general election candidate.  Danny Tarkanian, perhaps?  Or was he even TP?  Sharron Angle again?  Hey, if she could knock off Ensign, maybe she could win an open seat race.  I seem to recall that was Senator Ensign's career template after losing to Dirty Harry.

TEXAS: I'm less concerned about a primarying of Kay Bailey Hutchison than I am Dick Lugar.  Whether or not KBH seeks another term, that seat isn't going anywhere.

UTAH: I'm less concerned about a primarying of Orrin Hatch than I am Kay Bailey Hutchison.  But now that Teddy Kennedy isn't around anymore for Hatch to write love poems to, I tend to think he's got less to worry about as far as a primarying than Bob Bennett did.

So, on balance, about the same jeopardy forecast as the 2010 cycle: throwing away a Republican-held seat in a deep "blue" state and endangering one in the same "purple" state.  I just don't happen to think that the off-setting upside from all those Donk seats up for grabs is as robust as everybody else does.

We'll still capture the Senate next time.  But in such underwhelming a fashion as to be only a step above outright defeat.